I am currently still a bit sick, and so my opus will have to wait.
In the interim, let us address what's going on in Gaza. This is actually quite indicative of the overall political situation.
Hamas is supported by Russia. Israel is supported by the US. Russia is rather keen to keep oil prices up, and the US would rather keep oil prices, well, somewhere else.
The best way to jack up oil prices in the face of collapsing demand is conflict. Why is Hamas constantly provoking Israel? Simple: the Russians want the IDF to roll into Gaza, foment chaos, and then the resulting chaos destabilizes Egypt a la Lebanon in the early 80's.
It demonstrates how one-dimensional Russia is economically: without high oil prices, Russia really is doomed. Notice the recent contumely shown to Russia by Ukraine with respect to gas prices: Ukraine is seizing this opportunity (with US support and encouragement, I would wager) to beat Russia down and force Gazprom to eat a loss on their $340/MCF gas by selling it to Ukraine for $235/MCF (Gazprom wanted $250/MCF).
Now, in the face of waning demand, is the time to attack Russia and cripple her future production of resources, especially with Putin and his KGB scum in charge. Hopefully, Germany won't be short-sighted and try to cut a "seperate peace" with Russia... perhaps the recent Caucasion Invasion chastened the Russophiles amongst the anti-US Germans, but there is still a strong silovkiki and NKV-I mean, KG-I mean FSB presence in Germany, bribing top diplomats and leaders and giving them cushy board positions at Gazprom, Rosneft, etc.
The key in the short term is for the US to keep Egypt from collapsing, and that means controlling the conflict in Gaza. If Egypt succumbs to a MB-led revolt, the US will definitely be on the defense politically in Egypt, but at least we can start exporting more weapons again...
Saturday, January 3, 2009
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4 comments:
The Russians may have only a little to do with the current events. It may also be related more to the Israeli internal politics, Tipi trying to do the Olmert move from 2006.
I don't see a clear resolution of this round conflict. Probably , they'll do as usual... after a lot of fighting they'll go back to square one on a temporary cease fire.
That is of course if there isn't a major change in the strategic picture of the neighbors.
here it is:
http://www.gulfnews.com/news/gulf/bahrain/10272314.html
From that link:
Bahrain's MPs have called upon the Arab states to use the oil weapon and their investments in the West as bargaining chips to help end the Israeli bombing campaigns on Gaza.
[...]
"As we condemn the Israeli ruthless attacks and criminal acts that violate all international agreements and covenants, we demand that all retaliation options remain open for Arab governments," the lower house said.
"These include using the economic weapons such as oil and the huge investments and funds that Arabs have in the West.
So let's see what are the options they have:
1) an oil embargo that will drive up the oil price from $30/bbl up to the incredible level of ... $100/bbl :D
If Goldman bets on futures derivatives driving the price when Arab OPEC tries to bring oil up .. Wall Street will make a lot of money.
2) Withdraw from all sovereign wealth funds investments in the West ... and loose the rest of the money they gambled on the Wall Street casino... :D
3) Dump all the dollar and euro reserves on the markets ending the western currencies as a medium of global exchange. First all oil exporting countries have their currencies pegged on the dollar. It will be suicidal for their own economies.
Even if we assume all the governments of Gulf countries will get contaminated by the ideals of financial jihad and they are ready to kill their own economies just to bring down the dollar and the euro, what will be the currency they will be buying by selling dollars?
The Zimbabwe dollar ? :D
Moreover I don;t think that Israel started this without consulting with other arab countries including Saudi Arabia. To me it looks more like an attempt to defang Iran's influence in the area: the IDF does all the ground fighting, while the Arab governments protest "vigorously" in public while in private they cheering for IDF smacking the Iranian puppets in the area.
I believe this was long in the making, and they waited until now to get a favorable political timing for the israeli government.
Humbled again by your perspicacity :D
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