Gold sucks: it's clear.
However, what's levitating gold above 1300, aside from credulous longs? Why haven't we finally dived below 1100?
Simple: fear of a debt crunch. If we get a bond-market rout, then the Fed will have to countervail the deflation with sustained QE, thus providing gold (ostensibly) with a bid. This is the only reason I can see for gold not already vaporizing.
Hence, one way to bet on a debt crunch is to bet on gold longs, but really, if the Fed has supreme credibility, gold may still fail: it's just too high, given where we are. Wow, you can still lose if you win... anyway, that's my thesis, and so perhaps we have speculators picking up gold on the dips to hedge their rate-sensitive stuff... I don't know.
Gold remains a long-term SELL till GDX breaks 2008 lows: just my opinion.
However, what's levitating gold above 1300, aside from credulous longs? Why haven't we finally dived below 1100?
Simple: fear of a debt crunch. If we get a bond-market rout, then the Fed will have to countervail the deflation with sustained QE, thus providing gold (ostensibly) with a bid. This is the only reason I can see for gold not already vaporizing.
Hence, one way to bet on a debt crunch is to bet on gold longs, but really, if the Fed has supreme credibility, gold may still fail: it's just too high, given where we are. Wow, you can still lose if you win... anyway, that's my thesis, and so perhaps we have speculators picking up gold on the dips to hedge their rate-sensitive stuff... I don't know.
Gold remains a long-term SELL till GDX breaks 2008 lows: just my opinion.